lundi 25 février 2008

Faut-il parier sur l'or ?

Quand l'Amérique imposait sa version du franc à la France.

Dans son édition de ce matin, le Times de Londres publie un intéressant article du vétéran journaliste William Rees-Mogg, rédacteur en chef de ce quotidien de 1967 à 1981, sur les avenirs respectifs du dollar et de l'or. Voici des extraits :

As a medium of exchange, money needs to have convertibility and liquidity. Paper currencies have these qualities, so does gold. To add to the store of value, money needs to retain its value over long periods.

Gold has retained its value, though with fluctuations, over centuries. Even now its purchasing power in terms of physical assets is not far distant from 300 years ago, before Isaac Newton's recoinage of 1717. Most paper currencies lost more

than 98 per cent of their purchasing power in the 20th century alone.


China and India suspect that the American people will elect an inflationary president and Congress next November; as there is no remaining presidential candidate who stands for sound money, that seems the safe assumption. The euro may currently be a better currency than the dollar because it is still being run on sound German principles, though by a Frenchman. Gordon Brown has already undermined the pound by selling half the United Kingdom's gold reserves at about a third of the present price.


The dollar price of gold has been moving in a long cycle, up from 1965 to 1981, down from 1981 to 1999, up from 2000 to 2008. I do not expect this cycle to peak at $1,000 an ounce, though the credit crunch may give it pause. Gold is a defence against inflation. In November the Americans will elect another inflationary president.

That will be good for gold, but bad for the dollar

Aucun commentaire: